Global Warming

no, seriously. i hate - HATE - it when people get accused of being ignorant for not subscribing to climate change alarmism. I want to combat the idea that only irrational people question man-made climate change.

I love learning, I love science (sometimes I regret not having studied it through college), and I figured you might appreciate how cool some of these satellite images and graphs are. Being exposed to sound science is particularly important given the upcoming Carbon Cap-and-Trade legislation that the President will propose.

I heard a lecture by Dr. Fred Goldberg, who is an associate professor at the Royal School of Technology in Stockholm. He has some interesting thoughts, so I'll share the ones I poached off of his powerpoint.

Greenhouse gases and carbon: Carbon is not the most dangerous greenhouse gas. Water vapor is. Carbon can only absorb thermal radiation from the earth at narrow, specific frequencies, while water vapor absorbs both solar and thermal radiation. Therefore, water vapor's contribution to the greenhouse effect is 95% and carbon's is 1%. See graph.I think instead of a carbon cap-and-trade system, or some elaborate "carbon capture" and deep sea or subterranean storage method, we need a water cap-and-trade system! Yeah, we bottle it and send it to the bottom of the ocean. Or even to offices in five gallon jugs!

In my mind, carbon's significance in contributing to the "problem" is completely debunked through this analysis. 4% of the earth's carbon in the atmosphere is a result of burning fossil fuels. The other 96% of carbon in the atmosphere is released by warm sea water, so carbon is actually an indicator of a broader phenomenon that drives global climate: sea temperature and currents. The most important current is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO. This is the one big current in the Pacific. Looks like ocean current shoots and ladders, right?

The PDO can flow positively or negatively. Positively is when it comes up cold from the Asian side and pushes warm water down from Alaska to Mexico, and negatively when warm on the Asian side and cold water flows down the west coast.

Here are pictures of each from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Positive PDO flow on the left, meaning warm CA water from 1978 to 2008, and negative PDO flow on the right, meaning cold CA weather since April, 2008.

The PDO trends are fascinating. Since 1978 we were in a positive (warm west coast water) trend, until it reversed in 2008.

So what's the big deal with this Pacific Decadal Oscillation current? Only that it correlates closely with global temperature change!

(don't mind that the temp is being measured in kelvins...80F is 300K)

The next obvious question is "why does the ocean current change?" First things first - humans have no part in changing ocean currents. Goldberg suggests that currents change as the speed of the earth's rotation (or day length) changes. The "Length of Day" has been measured since 1650, and its variation is measured below in ten-thousandths of seconds.

Goldberg has identified a compelling correlation between Length of Day (LOD) changes and PDO changes, accounting for a ten year delay. When the earth's rotation slows down and the LOD increases, the PDO is positive (warm CA). When LOD decreases and earth's spin speeds up, the PDO is negative (cold).

Tangent: The fact that Length of Day (LOD) varies both up and down proves through physics that polar ice caps are not indefinitely melting, and that ocean levels are not rising. No, instead it suggests a stable cycle of fluctuation in ice melting/freezing and ocean levels. If ice caps were only melting and ocean levels rising, the circumference of the earth would be increasing. Just as a figure skater spinning quickly with her arms tucked closely will slow the rate of spinning as she extends her arms, the earth would be slowing down. According to Goldberg, this would cause a positive/warm current, and warmer global temperatures, which would lead to more melting...and a slower spinning earth, and even warmer currents, etc. - a worsening cycle causing a perpetually slowing earth and longer day. BUT, Length of Day fluctuates both up and down, demonstrating cyclical stability of the earth's radius, and therefore ocean levels.

What then changes the rate of earth's rotation? Goldberg suggests the spin of the sun (the sun is not actually the exact middle of the galaxy, but it wobbles around a point outside its center), and the activity of sunspots.The above shows the sun spot activity from '96 to '06. According sun cycle theories, we are headed for a very inactive period. That, coupled with the PDO's 2008 turn toward the negative means we are in for 30 years of natural global cooling, following the trend since 2001.

Big, exciting ideas. It further increases my faith that we only live and breathe by God's sovereignty and expert design. Just like it says seven times in Genesis 1 - "God saw that it was good."

I'll be impressed if you read all of this. This is science, and it shouldn't be politicized to advance any one's agenda. I don't know why this excited me so much. I think I'm just glad to show that my disbelief in global warming isn't ignorance.